Moving Beyond the Hockey Stick: Gaining Deeper Insights into Climate Change
On Earth Day in 1998, during what was then the warmest year on record, a groundbreaking graph called the "hockey stick" was published by the author and his co-authors. This simple graph, derived from various climate data proxies like tree rings, ice cores, coral, and lake sediment, displayed the average temperature of the northern hemisphere over the past six centuries. It resembled an upturned hockey stick, signifying the relatively stable pre-industrial temperatures ("the handle") followed by the dramatic warming coinciding with the industrial revolution ("the blade").
Subsequently, the authors extended this graph back 1,000 years, creating the "millennial hockey stick." It highlighted the unprecedented nature of contemporary warming. However, the focus on the hockey stick alone, created in the late 1990s, has overshadowed some crucial lessons that can be learned from studying the climate of the past 2,000 years. This article explores key insights we can gain from the climate record of the common era regarding the climate crisis we currently face.
The hockey stick graph condenses an entire year's data into a single number representing the entire northern hemisphere, which conceals larger regional episodes of warming or cooling. Examining regional phenomena like El Niño, a natural warming of the eastern tropical Pacific, can provide significant insights into climate patterns and their effects. For instance, the El Niño phenomenon, which occurs on timescales of four to six years, has a profound impact on global weather patterns.
Reconstructions of past El Niño behavior based on climate proxy data reveal a connection between large tropical volcanic eruptions and El Niño events. This relationship has significant implications for drought in the desert southwest and Atlantic hurricane activity. However, most current climate models do not account for this relationship, suggesting potential inaccuracies in predicting how the El Niño phenomenon will respond to ongoing human-induced warming.
The article also addresses the potential consequences of a slowdown in the "great ocean conveyor," a current that warms the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic and adjacent regions of North America and Europe. While it may not lead to extreme scenarios like those depicted in the movie "The Day After Tomorrow," it could impact North Atlantic fisheries and contribute to greater sea level rise along the U.S. east coast than current models predict.
Lastly, the article questions the conventional estimates for reducing carbon emissions to avoid a 1.5°C warming over pre-industrial levels. By examining climate proxy data and simulations, it suggests that previous estimates may underestimate early human-caused warming before the mid-19th century. This would mean that the world needs to significantly increase efforts to reduce emissions to avoid catastrophic climate consequences.
In summary, the hockey stick graph, which highlights the relative climate stability over the common era, may no longer represent our current situation accurately. We are entering a "fragile moment" where climate stability is fading, and urgent action is needed to mitigate the climate crisis. The upcoming COP28 international climate summit in Dubai may be the last chance for countries to negotiate the necessary emissions reductions.
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