Opinion: Climate Change Could Make Some Areas Uninhabitable Due to Extreme Heat
Extreme heat waves have been intensifying and becoming more frequent due to climate change. These prolonged periods of extreme heat and humidity are posing a growing threat to human health in many parts of the world. Research has revealed that regions that were once habitable could become too hot for humans to tolerate.
One way to gauge the impact of extreme heat and humidity on human well-being is by using the wet-bulb temperature, which accounts for both temperature and humidity. The wet-bulb temperature at which humans can no longer cool themselves effectively without air conditioning was traditionally believed to be 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius). However, recent lab tests conducted at Pennsylvania State University suggested a lower limit of around 88 degrees Fahrenheit (31 degrees Celsius) based on actual experimental data.
According to researchers at Penn State and Purdue University, regions exceeding this lower wet-bulb temperature threshold include some of the world's most heavily populated areas, such as the Indus River Valley in India and Pakistan, eastern Asia, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa. Many of these regions consist of low- to middle-income countries with vulnerable populations who will bear the brunt of climate change despite contributing relatively little to its causes.
Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial baseline can help reduce the extent and duration of temperatures exceeding the wet-bulb threshold. However, at 3 degrees Celsius of warming, the duration of exposure in these hot spots increases significantly, leading to physiologically intolerable conditions, especially in the Americas.
While breaking the wet-bulb temperature threshold once doesn't automatically make a place "too hot for humans," prolonged exposure to such conditions can be life-threatening. For example, the city of Hudaydah, Yemen, would experience an average of 340 hours a year of intolerable heat and humidity at 2 degrees of warming, significantly raising the risk of fatalities.
Extreme heat events have already caused numerous deaths in different parts of the world. Preparing for, adapting to, and mitigating extreme heat is crucial. Measures like opening cooling centers during heat waves, monitoring vulnerable communities, and shifting high-exertion activities to cooler parts of the day can help prevent heat-related illnesses. Long-term solutions include investments in adaptation and mitigation measures to address the warming already locked into the climate.
Ultimately, a global effort to reduce fossil fuel usage and achieve net-zero carbon emissions as quickly as possible is essential to avoid intolerable conditions for billions of people.
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