Why Some Civilizations Succumbed to Climate Catastrophes and Others Thrived: Insights for Today
The allure of ancient empires still captivates our collective imagination, long after their fall. This fascination recently found its way to TikTok, where women filmed men in their lives answering a deceptively simple question: How often do you ponder the Roman Empire?
Responses were a revelation. "I guess, technically, like every day," replied one boyfriend, leaving his girlfriend astounded. And he wasn't alone. Social media platforms buzzed with discussions about the Roman Empire's enduring appeal. Some couldn't help but contemplate the vast network of roads and aqueducts built by the Romans, elements that still influence our world today.
But what drives this fascination with the rise and fall of ancient civilizations? The question persists: How could something so colossal and advanced eventually crumble? And, more crucially, could a similar fate befall us? With rampant wildfires, surges in political violence, and dwindling public trust in government, the idea that modern societies, like America, could face collapse doesn't seem far-fetched.
In recent years, theories linking the breakdown of civilizations to climate change have gained traction. Prominent works, like Jared Diamond's 2005 book "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed," explored this theme. The Roman Empire, for instance, unraveled amid volcanic eruptions, leading to cooling and the first outbreak of bubonic plague. Ancient Maya's decline in Central America is linked to a significant drought, and Angkor Wat's downfall in Cambodia to erratic weather swings between droughts and monsoon floods. Given that minor climate changes led to the collapse of these grand societies, how can modern societies endure the far more substantial climate shifts today?
However, dwelling solely on catastrophe can skew our understanding of history. It's easy to overlook the societies that confronted environmental disasters and emerged stronger. Recent efforts by historians, anthropologists, and archaeologists aim to rectify this. A study that analyzed 150 crises from different periods and regions offers a broader perspective. This research, based on over 5,000 years of human history, emphasizes the role of environmental forces in societal declines but underscores their insufficiency.
Researchers from the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna found numerous examples of societies that endured famines, harsh winters, and environmental pressures. Mesoamerican cities like Mitla and Yagul in modern-day Oaxaca survived and thrived under drought conditions that contributed to the Maya civilization's fall in the 8th century.
The recent research, published in a peer-reviewed biological sciences journal from The Royal Society, suggests that resilience is an attribute societies can acquire and lose over time. A robust society can weather even dramatic climate shocks, while a minor shock can plunge a vulnerable society into chaos.
This finding aligns with earlier research, such as a 2021 study in Nature that delved into the relationship between climate disruptions and the collapse of dynasties in Chinese history. Notably, it was found that major volcanic eruptions—despite causing cooler summers and weaker monsoons, which affected crops—contributed to warfare. Surprisingly, the eruption's size wasn't the most critical factor in a dynasty's survival; some endured even the most significant climate-disrupting eruptions.
The Complexity Science Hub's study proposes that inequality and political polarization hold greater significance. Deteriorating living standards tend to fuel dissatisfaction among the general population, while wealthy elites compete for prestigious positions. As pressure mounts, society fractures, and governments lose legitimacy, making collective problem-solving more challenging. Inequality emerges as a central villain in history, contributing to various other issues.
Conversely, cooperation empowers societies to withstand environmental threats. Culture's role is paramount in fostering social cohesion and cooperation, enabling scalable reforms and adaptations. Socioeconomic equality and support for the underprivileged further enhance societal resilience.
The United States, as measured by the Gini coefficient, fares poorly in terms of inequality. With a score of 0.38, it lags behind nations like Norway (0.29) and Switzerland (0.32) but fares better than Mexico (0.42). Inequality is rampant, and the country's approach mirrors historical mistakes where societies mishandled such issues.
Peter Turchin, a coauthor of the study, predicts that America has approached the brink of collapse twice in its history, during the Civil War and the Great Depression. While the concept of "collapse" isn't always clear-cut, it often involves a loss of political complexity or population decline. Living through a period of societal change may feel more mundane than anticipated, akin to the adaptation observed in archaeological evidence following the Roman Empire's withdrawal from the British Isles.
Societal collapse could also be considered an adaptation in dire circumstances, one that sometimes leads to positive outcomes. Improved systems might replace vulnerable, unequal ones after collapse, provided the work of implementing reforms is undertaken without resorting to violence.
The challenges of today might not precisely mirror those of ancient civilizations, but valuable lessons from their strategies provide a foundation for policies aimed at surviving modern climate change. As environmental historian Dagomar Degroot notes, migration to more suitable environments, flexible governance, learning from past disasters, and expanding trade networks are tried-and-tested approaches. Additionally, societies promoting socioeconomic equality and supporting the disadvantaged are often more resilient.
In conclusion, while the path to adaptation and survival may not be guaranteed, the lessons of history serve as valuable guides for facing today's challenges without descending into violence.
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