China Unveils Methane Reduction Plan amid Growing Hopes for a New Climate Pact with the US
In a significant move towards environmental responsibility, China has finally released its much-anticipated methane reduction plan, signaling a potential breakthrough in climate negotiations with the United States.
China's commitment to curbing methane emissions was initially pledged at Cop26 in Glasgow in 2021, forming part of a collaborative agreement with the US. However, the concrete reduction plan had been conspicuously absent for two years. The recent publication, coinciding with the conclusion of four days of talks between US and Chinese climate envoys in Sunnylands, California, suggests a potential foundation for a new climate agreement. This is especially pertinent with a presidential meeting scheduled next week and the upcoming UN climate conference, COP28, at the end of this month.
The choice of Sunnylands as the meeting location between Xie Zhenhua and John Kerry carries historical weight, having been the site of the first presidential meeting between China's leader, Xi Jinping, and former US President Barack Obama in 2013. With Xi and current US President Joe Biden expected to meet at the Apec summit in San Francisco next week, the Xie-Kerry meeting lays crucial groundwork for a potential climate agreement.
The precedent set by the Xi-Obama meeting resulted in a groundbreaking US-China climate agreement in 2014, setting the stage for the subsequent Paris Agreement in 2015. Cautious optimism now surrounds the prospect of a new climate pact between the US and China, deemed a "golden opportunity" by Li Shuo, the incoming director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Policy Institute.
The report emphasizes that both nations see climate cooperation as a positive aspect amid broader geopolitical challenges. Byford Tsang, senior policy adviser at E3G, a climate change thinktank, notes that both the US and China aim to showcase the potential for cooperation on climate as a bright spot in their relationship.
While the recently unveiled methane reduction plan is a positive step, challenges remain. Unlike the US, which has committed to cutting methane emissions by 30% by 2030, China's plan avoids specific numerical targets. Analysts attribute this cautious approach to China's reluctance to make international pledges that may constrain its actions on the global stage.
Another contentious issue is the reduction of fossil fuel emissions, particularly the phasing out of coal. China, the world's largest producer of greenhouse gases, is under scrutiny for its reliance on coal for over 60% of power generation. Despite committing to net zero by 2060, recent challenges to energy security have made the phaseout of coal a sensitive topic.
Analysts suggest that addressing China's energy security concerns involves grid improvements and reforms to the domestic energy market rather than increasing coal consumption. The approval of new coal power plants in 2022, matching the record high since 2015, raises concerns despite President Xi's call for reducing traditional energy sources.
Notably, US climate envoy John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, differ on the coal issue. While Kerry advocates for it to be a focal point in COP28 negotiations, Xie deems complete fossil fuel phaseout "unrealistic." Despite these differences, analysts express hope for at least a preliminary agreement on new climate goals, recognizing the crucial moment both nations face with a presidential meeting on the horizon.
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