"UN Report Exposes Stark Divide: Global Fossil Fuel Production Plans Overshoot Climate Targets"
Global fossil fuel production for 2030 is projected to be more than double the levels required to meet climate goals outlined in the 2015 Paris climate agreement, according to a report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and a team of researchers. This revelation, disclosed just ahead of the COP 28 climate meeting scheduled for Nov. 30 in the United Arab Emirates, underscores a critical gap between production plans and climate objectives.
"Fossil fuel phase-out is one of the pivotal issues that will be negotiated at COP 28," emphasizes Ploy Achakulwisut, a scientist at the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and a lead author of the report, during a press briefing. "We need countries to commit to a phase-out of all fossil fuels to keep the 1.5C goal alive," she adds.
Under the Paris Agreement, nations pledged to limit average temperature rises, with a long-term goal of staying below 2 degrees Celsius and attempting to achieve even further reductions to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Despite scientific consensus on the need to reduce fossil fuel use, international agreements on specific phase-out dates for coal, gas, or oil use have yet to materialize.
The report scrutinizes the plans of 20 major fossil fuel-producing countries, revealing that they collectively intend to produce around 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than aligns with the 1.5-degree Celsius warming target, and 69% more than is consistent with the 2-degree Celsius goal. Shockingly, none of these nations have committed to reducing coal, oil, and gas production in line with the 1.5°C target.
The data projects a significant increase in oil production, reaching 218 exajoules per year (EJ/y) by 2030 and 221 EJ/y by 2050, equivalent to approximately 114 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) and 116 million bpd, respectively. However, to align with the 1.5C target, production would need to be reduced to 168 EJ/y or 88 million bpd in 2030 and 61 EJ/y or 32 million bpd by 2050.
These projections, highlighting an 82% share in global fossil fuel production and 73% of consumption among the analyzed countries, include major players like Australia, China, Norway, Qatar, Britain, the UAE, and the United States.
As the world awaits the COP 28 climate meeting, this report serves as a clarion call, emphasizing the urgent need for international cooperation to bridge the alarming gap between production plans and climate targets.
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