Unveiling the Potential Impact: Mt. Fuji Eruption Poses Supply Disruption Threat to Tokyo
The specter of a Mt. Fuji eruption looms over Tokyo, raising concerns about the city's preparedness for such a catastrophic event. Drawing parallels with the historical eruption in 1707, internal government data on eruption countermeasures obtained by the Mainichi Shimbun paints a worrisome picture, suggesting that supplies to 60% of Tokyo's 44.33 million residents could be blocked in the event of a similar occurrence.
The government's estimation, based on the assumption of multiple major eruptions akin to the Hoei eruption in 1707, foresees a scenario where volcanic ash falls over Tokyo, Kanagawa, Yamanashi, Chiba, and other prefectures for about two weeks. The resulting impact includes blocked roads, electricity outages, and potential evacuations affecting millions.
According to the internal documents, about 27 million residents could find themselves cut off from supplies due to impassable roads covered in ash, with an additional 36 million facing electricity outages caused by ash accumulating on power lines. Moreover, up to 26.7 million people might be required to evacuate due to disruptions and the risk of collapsing wooden houses under the weight of falling ash.
The crucial factor in recovery is the prompt removal of volcanic ash from roads. The internal data estimates that reopening main national roads, crucial for emergency vehicle access, would take about three days for one lane and five days for two lanes, assuming a limited workforce.
While the focus is on ash removal, the documents suggest that without restored roads, supplies would not reach affected areas, hindering evacuations. Future discussions may explore alternative delivery methods to areas inaccessible by vehicles.
Toshitsugu Fujii, professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo and a key figure in ashfall countermeasures, emphasizes the urgency of planning for potential eruptions. He notes, "Three centuries have passed since the Hoei eruption, and it is possible that magma is accumulating. So, there is no surprise that it could erupt at any time."
Fujii underscores the importance of discussing strategies to open roads promptly for supplies, recognizing the potential paralysis of metropolitan traffic in the aftermath of an eruption.
As Tokyo faces this potential threat, it becomes imperative for authorities to prioritize thorough planning and transparent communication to mitigate the impact on the city and its residents.
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