Explainer: From Trade to Climate, Five Takeaways from the EU Election

Explainer: From Trade to Climate, Five Takeaways from the EU Election

The recent European Parliament elections have resulted in a significant shift to the right, introducing more eurosceptic nationalists while reducing the presence of mainstream liberals and Greens. This change has far-reaching implications for various policy areas over the next five years. Here are the key takeaways from this election.

Climate Policies at a Crossroad The next five years are critical for Europe’s climate ambitions. The EU has spent the last half-decade enacting comprehensive clean energy and CO2 reduction laws to meet its 2030 targets. However, with a more climate-sceptical Parliament, these laws face potential dilution through loopholes. Key upcoming negotiations include the 2035 phase-out of new combustion engine cars and setting a new binding target to cut emissions by 2040. The rightward shift could jeopardize these crucial policies, impacting sectors from agriculture to transport.

Defence and Ukraine: Stability Amid Change While foreign and defence policies are mainly the prerogative of EU member states, the Parliament will still influence defence projects and budget approvals. Increased euroscepticism might hinder plans for pan-European defence cooperation and funding. Nonetheless, immediate support for Ukraine remains largely unaffected by the election results.

Trade Agreements: A Hurdle Ahead The European Parliament’s role in approving free trade agreements is crucial. With new agreements pending, such as those with Mexico and the South American bloc Mercosur, the increased presence of nationalist eurosceptics could complicate their approval. These agreements are essential to offset lost business with Russia and reduce dependence on China, but gaining parliamentary consent may now be more challenging.

Navigating Relations with China and the U.S. The EU needs a cohesive strategy to address its major rivals, China and the United States, especially if political dynamics shift in the U.S. However, nationalist parties advocating for a looser European Union could weaken this unified front. The EU’s ability to maintain its industrial base for green and digital goods amidst rivals’ massive subsidies will depend on parliamentary support for a clear industrial strategy.

Enlargement and Internal Reforms Admitting new members like Ukraine and Moldova requires significant internal reforms. The EU must revamp its agricultural policy and financial support systems to equalize living standards. Additionally, decision-making processes need to evolve, reducing the need for unanimity, which is increasingly difficult to achieve. The Parliament will play a pivotal role in these reforms, but stronger far-right opposition to deeper EU integration could pose significant challenges.

Conclusion The European Parliament’s shift to the right introduces a new dynamic that will shape the EU’s climate policies, trade agreements, and internal reforms. While immediate impacts on defence and support for Ukraine are limited, the long-term implications for the EU’s unified stance on global issues and its internal cohesion are profound. As the Parliament negotiates these challenges, its decisions will have lasting effects on Europe’s future.

 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1. What is the significance of the rightward shift in the EU Parliament?
   • The shift could influence climate policies, trade agreements, and the EU's approach to defence and foreign relations.
2. How does the EU Parliament impact climate policies?
   • The Parliament reviews and amends climate laws and will negotiate new emission targets for 2040.
3. Will the election results affect EU support for Ukraine?
   • Foreign and defence policies are primarily managed by member countries, so immediate impacts are limited.
4. What role does the EU Parliament play in trade agreements?
   • The Parliament must approve free trade agreements before they can enter force.
5. How might the EU Parliament's composition affect relations with China and the U.S.?
   • A fragmented EU Parliament could weaken the bloc's unified stance towards these major rivals.

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