African Anticyclone in October: a strong weather anomaly
The African heat waves that occur in early October in Italy represent an increasingly common weather phenomenon. Despite being mid-Autumn, in such circumstances temperatures can reach or exceed 30°C, especially in Southern Italy and the Major Islands like Sardinia and Sicily.
The phenomenon of African heat develops when masses of hot air from North Africa are pushed towards the Mediterranean basin by a High-Pressure field.
This meteorological configuration favors the stagnation of heat over large areas of the country, causing a significant increase in temperatures compared to seasonal averages. Although such heat waves in early October may seem unusual, they have become more frequent, partly due to climate change.
Out-of-season heat
The intensity of the heat not only causes physical discomfort and health problems, particularly for the most vulnerable people, but also has long-term consequences on the ecosystem and the atmosphere.
A critical aspect of out-of-season heat waves is the accumulation of thermal energy in the sea and air.
This excess energy can play a decisive role when new disturbances form, especially those coming from the Atlantic.
Sudden severe weather
Atlantic disturbances, characterized by high humidity and low-pressure systems, can find optimal conditions in an already overheated atmosphere.
When colder and more unstable air from the Atlantic interacts with the warm and stagnant air over Italy, perfect conditions are created for extreme weather phenomena such as violent thunderstorms, downpours, and strong winds. The surplus energy generated by the heat can intensify these disturbances, making weather events more intense and complex to predict accurately.
The problem of drought
Another effect of abnormal heat is the worsening of drought.
Although October heat is not as prolonged as summer heat, it can extend dry periods, especially if subsequent disturbances concentrate on specific areas without distributing evenly across the territory.
This creates a contrast between areas still affected by drought and others experiencing extreme weather episodes.
Which areas are most at risk?
The most vulnerable areas are certainly Southern Italy and the Major Islands, where African heat tends to be more intense and prolonged.
However, even the North and Center could experience abnormal temperatures, with direct consequences on water resource management and increased hydrogeological risk. The Po plains, for example, could suffer the combined impact of out-of-season heat and heavy rainfall, with negative effects on agriculture and infrastructure.
