September, a month with crazy weather, October follows suit

  Weather experts were not completely surprised: a crazy September weather was to be expected. The general climate picture is now strongly influenced by global dynamics related to climate change.

The frequency and intensity of these early cold episodes, followed by periods of abnormal heat, seem to be a direct consequence of changes in atmospheric circulation, with the Azores High struggling to stabilize as it used to.   In addition, seas warmer than the historical average contribute to fueling more intense storm phenomena, such as those that affected the plains of Emilia and Marche.  

Other factors

Another factor that contributed to this complex picture was the warming of the Mediterranean, which amplified the energy available for storms.

September was therefore a month full of contrasts, with sunny and mild days alternating with violent storms, testifying to the difficulty of accurately predicting the seasonal trend.  

Another month full of twists

After the turbulence of September, the month of October brings a more reassuring forecast for those who love mild temperatures: the “Ottobrata.” This term, typical of Italian meteorological language, describes a period of climatic stability, characterized by warm and sunny days that, despite the approaching winter, bring back a climate more similar to summer.   It is a phenomenon linked to the action of a high-pressure area, which often forms between the Mediterranean and Central Europe, ensuring temperatures higher than the seasonal average.

 

Very strong Ottobrata, expect high values

This year, the Ottobrata could be particularly intense, with temperatures that could reach and even exceed 30°C, especially in the central and southern regions of Italy.

The atmospheric stability expected in the coming weeks will allow for the enjoyment of pleasant weather, in stark contrast to the sudden cold of September.

However, this unusual warming will not last long, as winter is just around the corner and will soon make its effects felt.  

October, therefore, could offer a brief return of summer, but meteorologists warn that climatic variability will still be a protagonist.

Long-term forecasts indicate that the stability of the Ottobrata could be interrupted by new episodes of bad weather, with rain and temperature drops that could appear as early as the end of the month.