Weather: return of ABNORMAL HEAT, here’s where and when
Around mid-October, the weather pattern in Italy could change drastically.
After days of instability and autumn temperatures, a robust rise of the Anticyclone could bring a wave of anomalous heat, but not for everyone; we are talking about the central-southern regions and the major islands.
The main meteorological models confirm the influx of warm currents from North Africa, which will push towards the central Mediterranean, causing thermometers to rise to decidedly unusual levels for the period.
Still Autumn and a lot of rain, but then…
Before this significant change, however, the weekend will be characterized by more typically autumnal conditions.
On Saturday, a disturbance coming from the Atlantic will bring cooler air to much of the country, with a consequent drop in temperatures that will bring values back in line with seasonal averages. In the Center-South, episodes of instability may also occur, with some scattered rain, especially in the inland areas and along the Adriatic side. On Sunday, the improvement will be more evident, with widespread clearings that will mainly affect the North and coastal areas, although some residual cloudiness may still persist in the South.
The arrival of anomalous heat from next week
From Monday, however, things will change drastically.
The deepening of a depression over Western Europe will favor a push of High Pressure towards the Mediterranean.
The warm currents coming from North Africa, drawn by the movement of this depression, will begin to rise towards the Center-South, bringing a sharp rise in temperatures. Sicily and Sardinia will be among the first to feel the effects of this heat wave, with thermal values approaching 30 degrees starting from Tuesday. During the week, temperatures will continue to rise, reaching their peak between Wednesday and Friday. In Sicily, Sardinia, and along the southern coasts, thermometers could reach peaks of 33-34 degrees, values decidedly high for the month of October. Even in other areas of the Center, such as Lazio and Campania, temperatures will remain well above average, with highs around 28-30 degrees.
Huge differences between North and South
While the Center-South will enjoy almost summer temperatures, the situation in Northern Italy will be completely different.
The northern regions, in fact, will remain under the influence of cooler and more unstable currents of Atlantic origin.
On Tuesday, a new disturbance could bring widespread rain to much of the North, with more intense showers expected in the Alps and Prealps.
Even in the plains, especially between Piedmont and Lombardy, moderate precipitation is expected, accompanied by a drop in temperatures that will settle at autumn values, with highs between 15 and 18 degrees. During the week, weather conditions in the North will continue to be characterized by marked variability. There will be moments of clearings, but clouds and precipitation will remain predominant, with a more humid and cool climate compared to the rest of the country.
The cool Atlantic air could also partially extend to the Center, especially affecting the Tyrrhenian regions, such as Tuscany and Umbria, where unstable weather is expected between Tuesday and Thursday.
Weekend: uncertain evolution
The warm phase could last until Friday or Saturday, but long-term forecasts remain uncertain.
Some models hypothesize a gradual return to cooler conditions, with the arrival of a new Atlantic disturbance towards the end of the week. Note that much will depend on the position and evolution of the Anticyclone, which could extend this warm phase even beyond the weekend.
In the meantime, the contrast between high temperatures and cooler air could favor the formation of localized thunderstorms, especially in the inland areas of the Center and South.
