Trump's reelection has sweeping climate change consequences

Former President Donald Trump's reelection threatens to worsen global climate change by altering the trajectory of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, eroding federal climate research and forecasting, and abdicating America's leadership role in global climate negotiations.

Why it matters: His return to the White House comes at a time when climate scientists have warned that the Paris Agreement's warming targets are slipping dangerously out of reach, raising the odds of potentially catastrophic consequences.

• Already, climate change-worsened disasters have claimed hundreds of lives in the U.S. during the past few months alone.

Zoom in: Trump's emphasis on drilling for more oil and gas — if paired with rollbacks of emissions-limiting regulations and alterations to the Biden climate law — could lead to significantly more U.S. greenhouse gas emissions than would have been expected had Vice President Kamala Harris defeated him.

• In addition, Trump has a long record of threatening federal scientists' independence, including at the EPA and weather and climate agencies, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
• During his first term, this was demonstrated in the alteration of a hurricane forecast, which came to be known as "Sharpiegate" and rattled NOAA at a time when the agency was monitoring a Category 5 hurricane.
• His administration also tried to bury a congressionally mandated national climate science report and disavowed the findings, despite the involvement of all 13 climate science research agencies.

Later in his first term, the Trump administration tried to insert climate deniers into the office overseeing the next assessment, which was largely prepared and published during the Biden administration.

• The upcoming one, known as the Sixth National Climate Assessment, is just getting underway.

Friction point: Trump denies that human-caused climate change exists.

• But he'll inherit control of agencies that conduct work predicated on the long-standing scientific consensus that human emissions of greenhouse gases are primarily causing global warming.
• This is a recipe for conflict between political appointees and federal scientists.

The intrigue: His second term may bring moves to dramatically reshape the federal government.

• Project 2025, an initiative of the Heritage Foundation that included participation by many individuals involved in the first Trump administration, calls for privatizing the National Weather Service and breaking up NOAA.
• This could leave Americans with no public weather forecasting and warning provider, with a splintering of that life-saving function to a variety of private companies that could charge for such information.
• This would come at a time of sweeping technological change within the weather and climate community, as scientists advance new AI-based modeling.

Between the lines: The U.S. is a world leader in climate science and weather research, with the bulk of this being conducted at the Department of Energy, NOAA, NASA and the EPA.

• Each may see significant budget changes and overhauls to the civil service-based workforce that could make it easier for political appointees to hire or fire workers, including climate scientists.
• If a second Trump administration puts in place climate change doubters in charge of climate-related agencies and pairs that with civil service reforms, it could ensure the government produces reports and publishes data that more closely conforms to its views.

• Concerns about this may prompt scientists and others to download and preserve climate data in case the administration takes it offline.

Yes, but: On the campaign trail, Trump sought to distance himself from Project 2025.

• And overhauling science agencies may not be a day-one priority for Trump.
• In the first term, the White House ran out of time to reshape the major climate science-related agencies, with the focus on NOAA coming in the second half of his term.

What we're watching: The consequences of altering federal weather and climate change-related research and forecasting would be more significant today than they were during Trump's first term.

• Climate change is helping to supercharge extreme weather and climate events, such as deadly Hurricanes Helene and Milton, and scientists are racing to help society better prepare for future storms.
• Any brain drain of climate scientists out of government, or curtailing of their ability to communicate freely with the public and policymakers, could ultimately harm forecast accuracy and create new risks.
• There's also the possibility that nonprofits and the private sector emerge as stewards of climate data and sponsors of climate and weather research if Trump appointees take drastic steps that curb government's leading role in those areas.
• However, it's unlikely any entity other than the federal government could still own and operate NOAA's vast data collection platforms, from satellites to ocean buoys.