Weather: the unexpected turn, first winter cold already starting next week, the details
The anticyclone that has dominated European weather is showing signs of weakening, and from mid-November a first taste of cold could arrive in Italy, heralding the winter climate.
This vast anticyclonic field, which has brought abnormal temperatures to much of Europe, is indeed beginning to weaken over the Mediterranean, paving the way for a possible weather change. In recent days, a vast area of instability has formed over Spain, then extending between the North African coasts, the Baleares, and the Sicily Channel.
This situation has already caused a deterioration over the Main Islands, with Sicily experiencing the first showers, even intense ones, particularly on the eastern coast.
The thermal contrasts between the warm-humid air masses from the Atlantic and the cooler infiltrations from the Balkans and Aegean are fueling weather instability in these areas, bringing rains and thunderstorms that will intensify in the coming days, especially over Sicily and Sardinia. Across the continent, the dominance of the anticyclone has brought mild weather, making it difficult to imagine the arrival of the cold.
However, the countries of Eastern Europe have already experienced a first drop in temperatures, especially in Russia. Italy could also be involved in the coming days by a first wave of winter-like cold.
Cold air arriving from the Balkans
The next weekend, a first mass of cold air from the Balkans will head towards the Adriatic regions, although it will be a moderate phenomenon.
This impulse will bring a slight drop in temperatures, bringing them close to the seasonal average in the affected areas.
Despite the drop, the anticyclone will continue to influence the situation, stabilizing the weather over the rest of the peninsula but maintaining some instability over the Main Islands and in some areas of Southern Italy. The latest projections suggest a more marked weather change starting from the beginning of next week.
The anticyclone should move towards the United Kingdom and Scandinavia, thus favoring the descent of a mass of cold air over Central-Eastern Europe.
This cold air could also penetrate Italy, driven by the formation of a possible cyclonic vortex that could generate winter weather conditions with the first snow phenomena at low altitudes.
Early winter scenarios
With the likely shift of the anticyclone northward, Italy could find itself on the trajectory of cold air of continental origin, especially in the North and Central regions.
The first snowfalls at medium-low altitudes, typical of November, could occur in these areas, in line with the seasonal characteristics of this month, which usually marks the beginning of the winter climate over much of the European continent.
The area most exposed to these phenomena will be Northern Italy, particularly the Alpine and pre-Alpine sectors, where possible snowfalls are expected. Central Italy could also see a significant temperature drop, while in the South and on the Main Islands instability will continue to manifest in the form of rains and thunderstorms, favored by the contrasts between air masses.
A more winter-like November than usual?
Despite the anomalous anticyclonic dominance that characterized the beginning of the month, the hypothesis of a November with a winter flavor could materialize in the second half of the month.
This change of scenario, with the anticyclone moving towards northern Europe, would leave the channel open for the descent of colder air over Central-Eastern Europe and, partially, also over Italy.
