The Next Six Years Will Determine Climate Goal of 1.5°C Warming
This article discusses the urgent need to take significant actions to limit global warming to the critical threshold of 1.5°C. According to calculations presented in the article, humanity has a limited carbon budget of around 250 gigatonnes (billion metric tonnes) of CO₂ emissions if there is to be a 50-50 chance of achieving this goal.
The current global CO₂ emissions are approximately 40 gigatonnes per year. With this rate, the world has about six years, which may actually be closer to five years, to reach net-zero emissions. This calculation aligns with assessments by climate scientists and updates figures provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2021.
The concept of a "carbon budget" is crucial for understanding how much CO₂ can still be emitted while keeping global warming below a certain level. Net-zero emissions are the ultimate goal to stop global warming effectively. The article highlights the significance of this concept and its adoption by many countries, cities, and companies as part of their climate goals.
The carbon budget has been revised down from the 500 gigatonnes estimated by the IPCC from the start of 2020. Some of this revision is due to timing, with three years and 120 gigatonnes of CO₂ emissions since that estimate. Furthermore, improvements in the methodology for calculating budget adjustments have further reduced the remaining carbon budget.
The article also takes into account the impact of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases and air pollutants on climate change. It mentions the potential reduction of cooling aerosols like sulphates as emissions scenarios indicate stricter air quality regulations and cleaner combustion.
Uncertainties exist in estimating the carbon budget, primarily concerning non-CO₂ pollutants in future emissions scenarios and the behavior of the climate system after reaching net-zero CO₂ emissions. To achieve a 50-50 likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5°C, it is crucial to make a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
While the prospects of limiting global warming to 1.5°C may seem challenging, the article emphasizes that it's still worth pursuing and that effective actions to reduce emissions can potentially limit peak warming and pave the way for bringing temperatures back below 1.5°C in the longer term.
This article provides essential information on the urgency of climate action and the limited time frame to achieve the 1.5°C warming goal.
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