European Climate Risk Assesment

📐 Methodology

The European Climate Risk Assessment was conducted by the European Environment Agency at the request of the European Commission over a period of a year and a half. Through a systematic risk assessment, it aims to support the identification of climate adaptation-related policy priorities in Europe and policy development in climate-sensitive sectors. It focuses on climate risks that have potentially large consequences in Europe or need coordination at the European or transnational level, and indicates affected regions, sectors or population groups where possible. The findings in this report builds on, extends and complements the existing knowledge base on climate impacts and risks by linking it to strategic policy making in the European policy context. It presents the information in thematic factsheets and risky storylines. The former are ‘complex’ climate risks resulting from the interaction of various climate and non-climatic risk drivers which can cascade across sectors or national borders, and could lead to systematic impacts.

🔎 Key Takeaways

Based on a risk assessment, the report identifies 36 climate risks with potentially severe consequences across Europe, indicating these as priorities for EU policy action. They group these climate risks into five broad clusters: ecosystems, food, health, infrastructure, and economy and finance. This allows local actors to engage with information from the report that may be more relevant to their contexts. 

There are several overarching findings of this report. First, the authors explain climate change as a risk multiplier, meaning that it can exacerbate existing risks and crises which can cascade from one system or region to another. Cascading climate risks can lead to system-wide challenges affecting whole societies, particularly vulnerable social groups. The systems particularly affected include food, health, ecosystems, infrastructure, economy and finance. Importantly, awareness of risk cascades is crucial for reducing climate risks when developing risk reduction strategies. 

Second, to reduce climate risks in a just matter, it is important to understand the interaction of climate-related hazards with non-climatic risk drivers. There are numerous non-climatic risk drives that are highly variable across Europe, making them difficult to address in broad, European-wide scenarios. This provides an opportunity for local actors to be at the forefront of action to build sustainable and just risk reduction strategies. 

Last, but not least, the report outlines regional aspects and geographic hotspots that are confronted by multiple climate risks. Southern Europe is at risk of increasing impacts of heat and droughts. Moreover, rural areas and local economies dependent on ecosystem services (for example, agriculture) are particularly at risk. Low-lying coastal regions are at risk of flooding, erosion and saltwater intrusion aggravated by sea level rise. Finally, EU outermost regions are at risk due to their remote location, weaker infrastructure, limited economic diversification, and, in some cases, strong reliance on few economic activities. 

Overall, this report provides a succinct overview of climate risks in Europe and the challenges that are faced when planning risk reduction strategies. It may prove valuable for local actors looking to better understand the climate risks within their contexts and ways to address them in a just manner.