State of the Climate: 2024 Poised to be Warmest Year on Record
As we reach the midpoint of 2024, global climate data highlights an unprecedented warming trend. Carbon Brief's analysis indicates a 95% probability that 2024 will surpass 2023 as the warmest year on record, based on the Copernicus/ECMWF ERA5 dataset. This projection follows a series of climate extremes that have characterized the first half of the year.
Record-Breaking Temperatures
The first six months of 2024 have consistently set new global temperature records, continuing a 13-month streak of record-breaking warmth since 2023. On July 22, 2024, the world experienced its highest absolute global daily temperature, reaching 17.15°C. This trend is not localized; 63 countries reported their warmest June on record, with a total of 138 countries experiencing their hottest 12-month period.
Regional Impacts and Climate Phenomena
The warming has been felt across the globe, with notable heatwaves affecting regions such as South America, southern US, Mexico, northern Africa, western Europe, central Asia, and the Middle East. While the current trend indicates a possible development of modest La Niña conditions later in the year, which could slightly temper the extreme heat, the overall trajectory remains concerning.
Arctic and Antarctic Ice Extent
The polar regions are also experiencing significant changes. Antarctic sea ice extent has fallen near record lows similar to those seen in 2023, reflecting a broader trend of polar ice loss. Arctic sea ice extent has also been at the low end of historical ranges for much of the year.
Implications for 2024 and Beyond
The persistent rise in global temperatures highlights the urgency of addressing climate change. The data underscores that 2024 is very likely to be the warmest year on record, with a central estimate of a 1.57°C increase above pre-industrial levels. However, it is crucial to note that this does not necessarily imply a breach of the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C long-term warming threshold, as short-term fluctuations, such as El Niño, can temporarily spike temperatures.
Conclusion
These findings underscore the critical need for continued monitoring and action to mitigate the impacts of global warming. The record-breaking temperatures and extreme weather events observed in 2024 serve as a stark reminder of the accelerating pace of climate change and the urgent need for global action to address this crisis.
