Abnormal weather in September, but October will be worse
However, cold air cannot come from Russia, currently hit by a record heat wave.
The thermal contrasts between these hot areas and the cold masses at altitude are generating a very turbulent atmospheric circulation, which fuels a low pressure system loaded with precipitation.
These, encountering natural barriers, will cause intense rains. Another significant anomaly is the extremely powerful high pressure centered over Scandinavia, extending to Iceland and the Russian Arctic.
This anticyclone, particularly strong at altitude, is causing an out-of-season heat wave in those regions.
This configuration, which diverts currents from Russia towards Italy, is more typical of winter, when the icy winds known as Buran occur.
Consequences of the anomalous weather
Such conditions are atypical for autumn, rather reminiscent of a winter climate.
In recent years, traditional winter phenomena, such as abundant snowfalls in the Po Valley, have become less frequent.
These events were often linked to the arrival of cold air masses from the east, from Russia or the Balkans.
However, the higher temperatures recorded in these areas in recent winters have reduced the frequency of such cold outbreaks that in the past also affected Italy. The forecasts for October 2024 indicate an even more complex month, with weather anomalies that could determine unusual conditions.
Between new heat waves and possible cold outbreaks, below-average precipitation is expected in most Italian regions, except for some areas where rains will be within the norm, signaling yet another anomalous autumn.
The latest precipitations have not been sufficient to resolve the drought where it is most severe, such as in the South, Sicily, and eastern Sardinia. The month of October will bring further uncertainties with rapid transitions from heat waves to cold, and sudden returns of late heat, complicating daily life and agricultural activities, without finding a proper balance in many areas of the country.
