ANOMALOUS heat in October? All within the normal WEATHER patterns of the new millennium
Summers capable of extending until October, even November.
Temperatures significantly higher than seasonal averages, weather conditions that are nothing short of absurd.
Yet there is always hope… The hope that sooner or later we will return to talking about seasonal normality. And that is what is happening this September, because beyond the well-known negative thermal anomalies – surprising as they are heavy – years ago it was absolutely natural to expect significant changes during this period of the year.
A period of seasonal transition, it is good not to forget, sometimes capable of producing violent phenomena. Then comes October, a fully autumnal month, that month capable of clearing the tracks of the Atlantic train. Series of disturbances, beneficial rains, the first abundant snowfalls on the Alpine arc. Everything according to plan, yes but the plans of a few decades ago.
Not anymore, now the climate has changed profoundly, often exposing us to persistent heat waves. But then why claim that abnormal heat is a statistically conceivable event even in full Autumn? The answer is already in the question, namely statistics.
It would be enough to dust off meteorological archives to realize that even in the past, when the climate was different, there was no lack of late heat waves. The term “ottobrata”, after all, was not coined yesterday. It is a term that expresses, without getting lost in chatter, a well-defined weather scenario.
That is, the presence of High Pressure, the presence of the sun, the presence of positive thermal anomalies. It is true that in the past we talked about the Azores High Pressure, while today we are forced to bow our heads before the overpowering African Anticyclone.
But beyond the anticyclonic nature – which makes all the difference in the world, to be clear – periods of good weather and abnormal heat existed before as well. Therefore, nothing to be surprised about if you hear us talking about “ottobrata”, something we are already doing.
The “ottobrata” will happen, we are sure, it will be a matter of understanding whether sooner or later.
Because according to the latest model interpolations from some international calculation centers, it could intervene as early as the beginning of October, according to others not. But beyond the model differences, which will smooth out in a few days - in one direction or the other – let’s prepare for the tail end of Summer and as usual, it will be a “venomous” tail end.
Temperatures significantly higher than seasonal averages, weather conditions that are nothing short of absurd.
Yet there is always hope… The hope that sooner or later we will return to talking about seasonal normality. And that is what is happening this September, because beyond the well-known negative thermal anomalies – surprising as they are heavy – years ago it was absolutely natural to expect significant changes during this period of the year.
A period of seasonal transition, it is good not to forget, sometimes capable of producing violent phenomena. Then comes October, a fully autumnal month, that month capable of clearing the tracks of the Atlantic train. Series of disturbances, beneficial rains, the first abundant snowfalls on the Alpine arc. Everything according to plan, yes but the plans of a few decades ago.
Not anymore, now the climate has changed profoundly, often exposing us to persistent heat waves. But then why claim that abnormal heat is a statistically conceivable event even in full Autumn? The answer is already in the question, namely statistics.
It would be enough to dust off meteorological archives to realize that even in the past, when the climate was different, there was no lack of late heat waves. The term “ottobrata”, after all, was not coined yesterday. It is a term that expresses, without getting lost in chatter, a well-defined weather scenario.
That is, the presence of High Pressure, the presence of the sun, the presence of positive thermal anomalies. It is true that in the past we talked about the Azores High Pressure, while today we are forced to bow our heads before the overpowering African Anticyclone.
But beyond the anticyclonic nature – which makes all the difference in the world, to be clear – periods of good weather and abnormal heat existed before as well. Therefore, nothing to be surprised about if you hear us talking about “ottobrata”, something we are already doing.
The “ottobrata” will happen, we are sure, it will be a matter of understanding whether sooner or later.
Because according to the latest model interpolations from some international calculation centers, it could intervene as early as the beginning of October, according to others not. But beyond the model differences, which will smooth out in a few days - in one direction or the other – let’s prepare for the tail end of Summer and as usual, it will be a “venomous” tail end.
