Weather in chaos? Swinging between cold, tropical rains, and unseasonable heat
At the end of last week, Italy was enveloped by a wave of cold that brought temperatures well below the seasonal average, especially affecting areas that, until recently, were experiencing prolonged summer heat with high levels of humidity.
The weather forecasts, based on mathematical models, had anticipated this drastic temperature drop, expected to last about ten days.
Subsequently, a new rise in temperatures is expected, which should bring values back to normal towards the end of the month, over much of the national territory.
Weather: from the grip of cold to tropical rains
After this rigid phase, the weather will not only become milder but also decidedly more humid.
Precipitation, fueled by currents from the Western Mediterranean, will bring instability especially along the eastern side of the Tyrrhenian Sea.
Subsequently, a period characterized by south-western currents will channel humid air masses from Algeria and the Mediterranean towards Italy, a prelude to a climate that is decidedly warmer than one would expect for the autumn period.
Despite the waters of the Mediterranean slowly cooling, they still maintain temperatures above normal.
This phenomenon will continue to influence the weather, mitigating the seasonal marine cooling and creating atmospheric conditions reminiscent of a tropical climate, even during the month of October.
Temperatures and forecasts for an unusual October
The first weeks of October could be dominated by new heat waves, particularly in the regions of Southern Italy and the Main Islands, with temperatures above average, despite it usually being a month characterized by frequent rains.
In the last five years, October has often recorded temperatures above normal, and it seems that this trend may continue in 2024.
The weather has now stopped following traditional patterns, with increasingly frequent thermal inversions, where cold alternates with heat rapidly. A recent example was observed in the last two years, when during the New Year period, especially in the mountains, anomalous heat waves were recorded, which contributed to increasing the risk of avalanches due to the rise of the freezing point.
Even in this October 2024, the warming could be significant: in some locations where the maximum temperature did not exceed 15°C in recent weeks, an increase up to 25°C or even 30°C is expected, thus accentuating the perception of out-of-season heat.
Heat wave and seasonal delays
Such anomalous weather could lead to significant delays in the usual seasonal dynamics.
For example, the turning on of radiators, traditionally scheduled for October 15, could be postponed due to unusually warm weather, as already happened in the autumn of 2023.
It is not excluded that the same could happen this year, with local decisions that could delay the start of heating in homes and offices. The weather forecasts for October remain uncertain: it is complex to precisely establish the peaks of heat, but it is suspected that they could be significant, considering that extreme heat waves are being recorded in various parts of the world.
Moreover, the Italian regions known for autumn foliage could see a delay in this phenomenon, due to a prolonged summer that is altering natural cycles.
An uncertain future for the seasons
The evident extremization of the weather could radically influence the future of the seasons. Winters could turn into long autumns, with very few opportunities for significant snowfalls.
However, as demonstrated by the recent snowfalls recorded in mid-September in Northeast Italy, where snow fell below 1000 meters, it is clear that weather extremes can still surprise. The traditional idea of climatic normality now seems a concept of the past.
The seasons are becoming increasingly unpredictable, and we find ourselves adapting to a reality where heat can appear when we least expect it, even in autumn periods like October.
This leads to a return to summer-like weather conditions, with beaches that could see new flows of tourists eager to enjoy sunny days, far from the usual autumn scenarios.
The anomalous heat wave and the tropical rains expected in the coming days are just another sign of how unpredictable the weather has become.
