Weather: Should we be surprised by the heat in October? The “Ottobrata” is not what it used to be
This out-of-season warming, although not entirely new, appears increasingly frequent and intense.
The high temperatures that characterize the beginning of autumn are becoming a new normal in the climate context of the new millennium.
October and the return of heat: a new trend?
Italy, like much of Europe, has witnessed September and October with temperatures well above seasonal averages in recent decades.
This abnormal heat often coincides with the presence of the African Anticyclone, which brings warm air from the Sahara desert to the Mediterranean.
These extreme weather conditions, characterized by temperatures exceeding 25°C or even 30°C, are increasingly common in the month of October, so much so that many speak of a “new summer” in autumn.
September and the beginning of autumnal climate change
The month of September, traditionally considered the month of transition between summer and autumn, often marks the beginning of significant climate change.
Atlantic disturbances begin to appear, bringing with them the first intense rains and a drop in temperatures.
However, in recent years, even September has seen abnormal heat, with thermal peaks reminiscent of summer months. Although September 2024 marked a gradual return to more seasonally appropriate conditions, surprises were not lacking.
Strong thermal anomalies alternated periods of sudden cold with heat waves, making this month a sort of mix between summer and autumn.
Atlantic disturbances failed to fully assert themselves, favoring the persistence of unusual heat conditions.
October: between seasonal returns and climatic surprises
With the arrival of October, it is usually expected that autumn will finally take shape.
In the past, this month was characterized by frequent disturbances from the Atlantic Ocean, bringing abundant rains and the first snowfalls on the Alps.
However, today the weather landscape has changed, and the abnormal heat seems to challenge this old norm.
Projections for October 2024 indicate the possibility of new heat waves, thanks to the constant influence of the African Anticyclone.
This phenomenon could extend summer temperatures in various Italian regions, particularly in Central Italy, Southern Italy, and the Main Islands, such as Sicily and Sardinia.
In these areas, thermometers could easily exceed 27°C, maintaining an unusually warm climate for the period.
The “ottobrata”: a traditional phenomenon or a new reality?
The term “ottobrata” refers to periods of high pressure that bring good weather and unusually high temperatures for the month of October.
In the past, this phenomenon was associated with the Azores High, which guaranteed sunny and mild days.
Today, however, the African Anticyclone is the main protagonist, bringing much more intense and prolonged heat. The ottobrate are not an absolute novelty in the Mediterranean climate, but in recent years their impact seems to have increased in frequency and intensity.
It is likely that during October 2024 we may witness one of these events, with temperatures that could remain above average for several consecutive days.
Some climate models suggest that the phenomenon could manifest itself already at the beginning of the month, while others hypothesize a possible return of heat towards the middle of the month.
A last taste of summer?
Although October is now considered the month of full autumn, it is not uncommon for there to be episodes of abnormal heat, briefly bringing back summer conditions.
This year, in particular, it is expected that several regions of Italy may experience a last taste of summer, with sunny days and temperatures that could reach and exceed 30°C in the Main Islands and in Southern Italy. However, it is important to emphasize that these heat waves are increasingly often interrupted by sudden phases of bad weather, brought by Atlantic disturbances that can generate abundant rains and intense thunderstorms, especially in the regions of Northern Italy and Central Italy.
Conclusion
If the forecasts are confirmed, we are in for an October marked by continuous climatic fluctuations.
Days of abnormal heat could alternate with phases of intense bad weather, creating a climate of uncertainty and variability typical of the extreme weather that increasingly characterizes our millennium.
