Bihar: It’s business as usual as climate change ensures drought despite flood — and nobody bats an eye
There seems to be no end to the wrath of climate change which is experienced by Bihar almost every year. The double whammy of flood and drought, which is now an annual affair — is so regular in being erratic that it barely makes news headlines anymore. This annual occurrence of flood and drought displaces millions of underprivileged residents who are forced to supply cheap labour across and sometimes beyond the country.
This year, despite the unusually delayed floods in north Bihar, the state continues to record an overall rainfall deficit of 20 per cent with the monsoon officially exiting this week. Bihar has witnessed a poor monsoon for the third consecutive year and last year, the state recorded a rainfall deficit of 23 per cent.
According to officials of India Meteorological Department (IMD) in Patna, it is a matter of serious concern that scanty and erratic rainfall has become a trend in Bihar during the last decade.
SK Patel, a weather scientist at IMD-Patna, told Down To Earth (DTE) that Bihar has recorded 798.3 millimetres (mm) of rainfall against the normal 992.2 mm rainfall, which is 193.9 mm less.
“This rainfall deficit is neither good news for agriculture nor farmers. This trend of poor monsoon rainfall is likely to continue because of climate change,” Patel said.
Crisis in numbers
The flood-prone state has recorded 78.4 mm of rainfall against the normal 163.3 mm rainfall in June 2024, which was a rainfall deficit of 52 per cent. The state recorded 241.3 mm of rainfall against the normal 340.5 mm rainfall in July 2024, which was again a deficit of 29 per cent.
In August 2024, Bihar recorded 260.3 mm rainfall against the normal 271.9 mm, which was a rainfall deficit of four per cent. In September 2024, the state recorded 218 .5 mm of rainfall against the normal 216.5 mm, which was surplus rainfall of one per cent.
During the four months-long monsoon season, Bihar experienced showers ranging from low, medium and heavy on 53 days only, officials said.
But what is a bigger matter of concern is that 19 out of 38 districts of Bihar recorded rainfall deficit from 20 per cent to over 53 per cent this time that affected kharif crops and likely to affect rabi crops due to lack of moisture in the farm land.
Most of these districts are flood-prone including Bhagalpur, Madhubani, Darbhanga, Purnea, Muzaffarpur, Sitamarhi, Begusarai, Saharsa, Purnea, Madhepura, Samastipur and Saran.
The IMD Patna’s latest data revealed that Saran district has recorded rainfall deficit of 53 per cent, Vaishali district recorded rainfall deficit of 49 per cent followed by 46 per cent in Muzaffarpur and 44 per cent in Samastipur districts.
However, only a few districts including Nawada, Arwal, Sheikhpura, Aurangabad and Gaya recorded above normal rainfall this year, as informed by IMD Patna. Ironically, these four districts, situated in south Bihar are prone to droughts.
Abdus Sattar, a senior scientist at the Centre for Advanced Studies on Climate Change at the Pusa-based Rajendra Prasad Central Agricultural University, told DTE that it is no secret that the monsoon has become abnormal and erratic due to climate change.
The erratic monsoon is responsible for decreasing the number of rain days in the state, leading to extreme conditions.
“We have been closely studying rainfall patterns that have changed significantly in the state in recent years due to an adversely changing climate. It is likely to continue and will mainly affect kharif crops. The government along with farmers will have to work in coordination to minimise the impact of climate change on agriculture. They have to go for alternative crops to adapt with the changing times,” he added.
Paddy farmers stunned
Paddy farmers in Bihar fear that the prevailing weather conditions are likely to affect production of their crops. For a good harvest to be secured, a normal monsoon rainfall is much needed for the majority of farmers in Bihar who depend on rain-fed cultivation.
This year, hard working farmers had completed transplantation of paddy seedlings in more than 95 per cent of the total target as the government estimates the paddy acreage to be 3.654 million hectares this year.
Officials of the state agriculture department told DTE that devastating floods in north Bihar heavily damaged standing crops, mainly paddy.
As per an official estimate 0.24 million hectares were affected by floods. But damage is more than 33 per cent in 91,000 hectares.
Large tracts of standing crops were destroyed in the devastating floods following record volumes of water were released from barrages in the after heavy monsoon rainfall, causing the rivers to rise.
According to an official update by the Water Resource Department (WRD), a total of 601,600 cusecs of water was released from Birpur Barrage on the Kosi on September 28.
All 56 sluice gates of the barrage were opened. Similarly, a total of 554,475 cusecs of water was released from the Valmiki Nagar Barrage on the Gandak and all 36 sluice gates of the barrage were opened on September 28.
WRD officials admitted that they had not expected water levels to rise to astronomical levels that forced the release of water from barrages.
A quick glance at the official records of the WRD show that the release of water from Birpur Barrage on September 28 is the highest after 1968 when 681,000 cusecs of water were released.
Similarly, the release of water from the Valmiki Nagar Barrage on the Gandak river is the highest since 2003. According to WRD’s website, Bihar is the most flood-affected state, accounting for close to 17.2 per cent of the total flood-prone area in the country. Some 6.88 million hectares (76 per cent of north Bihar and 73 per cent of south Bihar) of Bihar’s 9.416 million hectare-area is flood-prone. At present, 28 of 38 districts in the state are officially flood-prone
It is worth highlighting that in the last 10 years, Bihar recorded rainfall deficit seven times and surplus rainfall only thrice. The state recorded 1,050 mm rainfall in 2019, 1,272 mm in 2020 and 1,044 mm in 2021. As per official IMD’s data, in 2019 Bihar recorded 1393 mm rainfall, which was surplus rainfall of 34 per cent, highest in the last decade.
Climate scientists mentioned that the poor monsoon in Bihar is a clear indication of changing rainfall patterns which threatens an estimated two-thirds of Bihar’s 120 million people depend on agriculture.
