Progress of major emitters towards climate targets | 2024 update
To guide efforts in ensuring that countries are on track to achieve the climate goal of the Paris Agreement, we annually evaluate the progress of 25 major emitters, which collectively cover more than 80% of global emissions, towards their climate change mitigation targets. In our 2024 update report, we modelled greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions towards 2030 based on countries’ policies as of July 2024 and compared these emissions to countries’ current NDC targets to evaluate whether countries are on track to meet them.
GHG emissions of the 25 countries assessed may peak before 2025 – if existing policies are implemented effectively
Aggregated emissions for the 25 countries could be 2% below 2019 levels by 2025 and reach 10% below 2019 by 2030. This projected 10% reduction in emissions in the best-case scenario is positive but remains insufficient, given that limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires a 43% emissions reduction over the same period. However, this is an improvement compared to our 2023 report. In 2030, we project that emissions will reach 34.2 – 39.8 GtCO2e. This corresponds to a change of between -10% and +4% compared to 2019 levels — compared to last year, where emissions were estimated to range between -6% to +8%. This means emissions are projected to shift downward across the range, decreasing 4 percentage points at both the upper and lower end of the scenarios in one year.
