Where Climate Change Poses the Most and Least Risk to American Homeowners
In 2017, Angela and Donald Brudos relocated to a modest ranch-style home near the Caloosahatchee River, where it empties into the Gulf of Mexico. Despite Florida’s history of extreme weather, they believed they had found a safe and affordable retirement haven.
“We felt reassured,” Angela Brudos recalls, “because our neighbors told us the area had never flooded.”
However, as climate change continues to evolve, the risks are becoming evident, even in areas once considered safe. Cape Coral may serve as a warning to homeowners across the country, illustrating how climate risks are beginning to influence the housing market. Although their home remained dry for years, the increasing flood risks were already diminishing property values in waterfront neighborhoods like theirs, while prices in less vulnerable areas remained stable or increased.
As climate awareness grows among buyers and sellers, regions like Cape Coral offer a glimpse into what millions of American homeowners may soon face: a gradual, almost unnoticed, shift in how homes are priced based on environmental risk.
Rising Risks, Rising Costs
The Brudoses’ experience with Hurricane Ian in 2022 brought the risk into sharp focus. The storm left their home’s interior submerged in mud and debris. Nearly two years later, they remain displaced, living in a trailer on their property as they struggle with mounting expenses and delays in insurance claims. To meet federal flood insurance requirements, they took out a $210,000 loan to raise their home, a costly but necessary step to protect their investment.
“The only option we had was to go into deep debt and raise the house,” said Donald Brudos. “We’re terrified.”
The costs associated with Hurricane Ian — including $125,000 to elevate the house and $80,000 for repairs — have left the couple financially strained. While scientists cannot definitively link specific hurricanes to climate change, rising temperatures are believed to intensify such storms, adding to the uncertainty for coastal residents.
Shifting Markets
The Brudoses' story is part of a broader trend affecting coastal and flood-prone properties across the United States. Research shows that homes in high-risk areas are starting to experience declining sales and falling prices, compared to those in safer locations.
Benjamin Keys, a real estate economist at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, has studied how climate risks are reshaping the housing market. His findings indicate that since 2013, homes most vulnerable to sea-level rise and flooding have seen a drop in demand, followed by price declines. By 2020, these high-risk properties had lost 5% of their value relative to their pre-recession peak.
“Climate risk is becoming a major factor in real estate,” Keys explains, noting that areas like Florida, which once saw a booming property market, may face long-term challenges as more buyers become cautious.
The Growing Divide
The study conducted by Keys and his colleague Philip Mulder found that before 2013, homes in high-risk and low-risk areas appreciated at similar rates. However, after that year, the market began to split. Riskier properties started selling less frequently, and their values began to lag behind. This trend became more pronounced after the pandemic, as home prices in safer areas rose more significantly.
Recent data analyzed by The Washington Post shows that this pricing gap has only widened. Since 2022, properties in high-risk areas have seen a mere 2% increase in value, compared to a 7% rise in safer areas. For a typical $400,000 home, this difference amounts to a $20,000 loss in appreciation for properties facing climate-related threats.
Long-Term Consequences
For homeowners like the Brudoses, this trend may represent a turning point. While real estate markets historically rebounded after natural disasters, climate change appears to be altering this pattern. In areas hit by hurricanes, wildfires, and other extreme weather events, the perception of risk is now having a long-lasting effect on property values.
In Cape Coral, city officials predict that the population could double by mid-century, despite projections from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that the region could experience more than 100 days of flooding annually by 2080. Yet local government interest in climate adaptation has waned, leaving residents vulnerable to future disasters.
As climate models improve, homeowners now have access to more detailed information about environmental risks. Platforms such as Redfin and Realtor.com are starting to include climate risk data in property listings, while new laws in states like Florida require sellers to disclose past flood damage. This greater transparency is expected to further influence property values, particularly in areas like Cape Coral, where risks are high.
For Angela and Donald Brudos, the decision to elevate their home was both a financial and emotional burden. As they await the first offer that could help them recover their investment, they face an uncertain future — one that could become increasingly common for American homeowners in the era of climate change.
